The Inflection Point: Critical Pathways in Food Retailing

Europe, 2007
Europe Council, 2007: We marvel at the meteoric rise and spectacular successes of Tesco, Mercadona or Lidl. At the same time, we wonder what happened to Winn-Dixie, the giant North American retailer forced to declare bankruptcy, while its principal competitor Publix continued to grow and thrive. Why did Safeway U.K. or Promodes reach a point where it became prudent to sell rather than to continue to compete?
 

How did some of the seemingly invincible companies of the past decades, with massive capital and resources, begin to fall on hard times and struggle, while other new startups captured the imagination (and the wallets) of consumers?

The concept of an Inflection Point suggests that there are critical points in the history of an industry or an individual company that signal permanent and enduring change. When a company faces an Inflection Point, its future might literally be at stake – the proper response leads to sustained growth, while inappropriate reactions often lead to obsolescence.

Failure to recognize or respond appropriately to changes in consumer behavior, market conditions, or opportunities has often spelled disaster for food retailers in markets around the world.

Successful companies appear to consistently and accurately anticipate or create new market trends, while those less successful either fail to react to market conditions or make the wrong choices.

It is easy to point out retrospectively where these right or wrong decisions were made. It is more difficult to be able to understand if an impeding Inflection Point is at hand. And, even more critically, to have the necessary skill sets to predict those potential Inflection Points and to respond quickly.

This study seeks to help retailers answer the critical questions that will impact their long-term success.